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At 2 p.m. AST, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is located about 105 miles (165 km) south of St. Croix and about 180 miles (285 km) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or just south of Puerto Rico later today and tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over eastern Cuba on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north and northeast of the center. A wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h) was recently reported at the Luis Munoz Marin International Airport in San Juan. A wind gust of 44 mph mph (71 km/h) was also reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands within the past few hours. In St. Maarten, a wind gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) was observed late this morning. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some restrengthening is possible by this weekend.
The disturbance is expected to produce the following rainaccumulations:- Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. VirginIslands: 3 to 6 inches.- Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.- Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.- Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12 inches.These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 5 p.m. AST - www.hurricanes.gov