2021 Hurricane Forecast

Above-Average Season Expected for 2021

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. The hurricane season officially extends from June 1 to November 30.

For 2021, NOAA predicts a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. 

An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.  Previously, the average season consisted of 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.